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Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey.
Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.
The results of their latest survey:
Home values will appreciate by 3.9% by the end of 2015, 3.4% in 2016 and 3.1% in each of the following four years (as shown below). That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.2% over the next 5 years.
The prediction for cumulative appreciation rose from 18.1% to 21.6% by 2020. Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 13.8%.
Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values.
As a seller, you will be most concerned about ‘short term price’ – where home values are headed over the next six months. As a buyer, you must be concerned not about price but instead about the ‘long term cost’ of the home.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all projected that mortgage interest rates will increase by about three-quarters of a percentage point over the next twelve months.
According to CoreLogic’s most recent Home Price Index Report, home prices will appreciate by 5.2% over the next 12 months.
What Does This Mean as a Buyer?
Here is a simple demonstration of what impact an interest rate increase would have on the mortgage payment of a home selling for approximately $250,000 today if home prices appreciate by the 5.2% predicted by CoreLogic over the next twelve months:
CoreLogic released their 2015 2nd Quarter Equity Report which revealed that 759,000 properties had regained equity in the last quarter. That means that 91% of allmortgaged properties (approximately 45.9 million) are now in a positive equity position. Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic, reported:
“For much of the country, the negative equity epidemic is lifting. The biggest reason for this improvement has been the relentless rise in home prices over the past three years which reflects increasing money flows into housing and a lack of housing stock in many markets.”
Obviously, this is great news for the financial situation of many homeowners.
But, do they realize their equity position has changed?
A recent study by Fannie Mae suggests that many homeowners are unaware that their equity position has changed…in some cases dramatically. For example, their study showed that 23% of Americans still believe their home is in a negative equity position when, in actuality, only 9% of homes are in that position.
The study also revealed that, though 69% of homes had “significant equity” (greater than 20%), only 37% of Americans realize it.
This means that 32% of Americans with a mortgage fail to realize the opportune situation they are in. With a sizeable equity position, many homeowners could easily move into a housing situation that better meets their current needs (moving to a larger home or downsizing).
Fannie Mae spoke out on this issue in their report:
“Homeowners who underestimate their homes’ values not only underestimate their home equity, they also likely underestimate 1) how large a down payment they could make with their home equity, 2) their chances of qualifying for mortgages, and, therefore, 3) their opportunities for selling their current homes and for buying different homes.”
Every homeowner should be aware of the true equity in their house and also realize the opportunities that go along with it. If you are unsure of the savings you currently have built up in your home, contact a real estate professional to help ascertain that number. You may be surprised.
As the economy continues to improve, more and more Americans are seeing their personal financial situations also improving. Instead of just getting by, many are now beginning to save and find other ways to build their net worth. One way to dramatically increase their family wealth is through the acquisition of real estate.
For example, let’s assume a young couple purchases and closes on a $250,000 home in January. What will that home be worth five years down the road?
Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists every quarter. They ask them to project how residential prices will appreciate over the next five years. According to their latestsurvey, here is how much value that $250,000 house will gain in the coming years.
Over a five year period, that homeowner can build their home equity to over $40,000. And, in many cases, home equity is large portion of a family’s overall net worth.
If you are looking to better your family’s long-term financial situation, buying your dream home might be a great option.
There are many benefits to homeownership. One of the top ones is being able to protect yourself from rising rents and lock in your housing cost for the life of your mortgage.
Don’t Become Trapped
Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at realtor.com recently reported on what he calls a “Rental Affordability Crisis”. He warns that,
“Low rental vacancies and a lack of new rental construction are pushing up rents, and we expect that they’ll outpace home price appreciation in the year ahead.”
The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University recently released their 2015 Report on Rental Housing, in which they reported that 49% of rental households are cost-burdened, meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing. These households struggle to save for a rainy day and pay other bills, such as food and healthcare.
It’s Cheaper to Buy Than Rent
In Smoke’s article, he went on to say,
“Housing is central to the health and well-being of our country and our local communities. In addition, this (rental affordability) crisis threatens the future value of owned housing, as the burdensome level of rents will trap more aspiring owners into a vicious financial cycle in which they cannot save and build a solid credit record to eventually buy a home.”
“While more than 85% of markets have burdensome rents today, it’s perplexing that in more than 75% of the counties across the country, it is actually cheaper to buy than rent a home. So why aren’t those unhappy renters choosing to buy?”
Know Your Options
Perhaps, you have already saved enough to buy your first home. HousingWire reportedthat analysts at Nomura believe:
“It’s not that Millennials and other potential homebuyers aren’t qualified in terms of their credit scores or in how much they have saved for their down payment.
It’s that they think they’re not qualified or they think that they don’t have a big enough down payment.” (emphasis added)
Many first-time homebuyers who believe that they need a large down payment may be holding themselves back from their dream home. As we reported last week, in many areas of the country, a first-time home buyer can save for a 3% down payment in less than two years. You may have already saved enough!
Don’t get caught in the trap so many renters are currently in. If you are ready and willing to buy a home, find out if you are able. Have a professional help you determine if you are eligible to get a mortgage.
In a recent article by the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, it was revealed that some Millennials are not looking to purchase a home simply because they don’t believe they can qualify for a mortgage.
The article quoted Jessica Lautz, the National Association of Realtors’ Managing Director of Survey Research, as saying that there is a significant population that does not think they will be approved for a mortgage and doesn’t even try. The article also quoted Fannie Mae CEO Tim Mayopoulos :
“I do think that there’s a sense out there in the marketplace among borrowers that credit may not be available, especially for people with lower credit scores.”
So what credit score is necessary?
A recent survey reported that two-thirds of the respondents believe they need a very good credit score to buy a home, with 45 percent thinking a “good credit score” is over 780.
In actuality, the FICO score on closed loans (as reported by Ellie Mae) is much lower and has been dropping over the last several months.
Millennials who are considering a home purchase should get advice from a local real estate or mortgage professional now. They may be surprised how much the requirements for a mortgage have eased.
Montague Miller & Co Realtors has been awarded the Website Quality Certification (WQC) from Leading Real Estate Companies of the World®, a global community of more than 500 high quality independent real estate firms.
Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® (LeadingRE) presents the certification in
Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® (LeadingRE) presents the certification in
recognition of excellence in website design and function.
Montague Miller’s website, www.montaguemiller.com, earned the certification after receiving high marks in a number of critical areas relating to website performance, including usability, design and content, interactivity, customer service and mobile responsiveness. The evaluation was conducted by Virtual Results, LLC, a real estate internet and social marketing firm selected by LeadingRE to review the websites of participating members.
Available only to firms affiliated with LeadingRE, the WQC is awarded based on specific measurements that are updated each year based on the latest in internet marketing strategies and evolving consuming preferences. To maintain the certification, companies must be re-certified every two years.
“We created the WQC to raise the bar in online marketing and recognize the companies that are demonstrating best practices with their websites,” said Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® President/CEO Pam O’Connor. “The 136 companies that earned the WQC this year have not only mastered the technical components, but they have also shown superiority in providing highly local content, up-to-the-minute information on homes, and responsive customer service.”
“Over 90% of all homebuyers utilize the Internet during their home search. Montague Miller feels it is essential that all the tools for a home sale, or purchase, be made available and that those tools are relevant and timely.
“The WQC certification process enables Montague Miller to have the most up-to-date and informative website in the industry,” said Pat Sury, Vice President of Relocation & Business Development.
For more information about Montague Miller & Company, please visit www.montaguemiller.com.